When it comes to Victory Points, the score you see is not always the “true” score.
Look at this scene from Withdrawal from Hill 112. Who’s ahead?
Score says Axis is ahead by one.
But let’s look at the situation and the cards.
While I do not know what the Axis are holding, I can see that the Allies have a Barrage. Since the Axis have two weak infantry units, that Barrage is almost another point. 69% chance of destruction of a two-figure Infantry with four dice (https://generalhowitzer.com/strategy-dice-percentages/). Then the Axis have several weak units in the open, while the Allies have mostly complete units, all in secure locations.
So I would say the conservatively, the score is at least tied, and perhaps the Allies are very close to the lead.
Agree or Disagree?
A lot depends on who’s turn is next. If the allies are just going to use that attack on the right flank then it’s easily an equal position, possibly somewhat better for the allies, as you pointed out. If, on the other hand, they just finished their turn and the axis are up next they could mount a dangerous attack on their own right flank.